Agriculture

This climate change profile is designed to help integrate climate actions into development activities. Since 1980, decreasing rainfall has been accompanied by rapid increases in temperature on the order of more than 1°C. This warming, which is two and a half times greater than the global warming, is making ‘normal’ years effectively drier. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years. Climate change will aggravate South Sudan’s fragile situation and may contribute to existing tensions and conflict.

Across the African continent, 268 million people practice pastoralism, both as a way of life and a livelihood strategy, contributing between 10 to 44 percent of the GDP of African countries. In recent years, this adaptive animal production system has faced growing external threats due to issues such as climate change, political instability, agricultural expansion, and rural ban-ditry that have transformed the rangelands in which they operate. From Mali to South Sudan, governments, regional bodies, peacebuilders, development agencies, environmentalists, economists, and security forces are actively attempting to address the sources of violence and instability that affect both pastoral communities and the rural societies with whom they share resources and landscapes.

These interventions are often shaped by differing assumptions about the source and nature of these conflicts, despite the avail-ability of extensive research and analysis. Though the local dynamics of conflict vary across different contexts, a number of trends and debates appear throughout the literature on pastoralism and conflict. This review draws on several hundred sources to synthesize the major points of consensus and divergence in the existing literature and identify relevant research gaps. This anal-ysis presents data from across Sudano-Sahelian West and Central Africa, to link comparable findings that are often presented in isolation.

Although conflicts over land and water resources in the Sudano-Sahel have long been a political concern and were a major point of contention in the colonial and post-independence eras, they have gained prominence in recent years due to the ongoing spread of violence, instability, and displacement across the region. Latent tensions over resource access and control, which his-torically only occasionally led to violence, have now erupted in some cases into cycles of mass killings and reprisals. In Nigeria, escalating rural banditry and reprisal violence between farmers and pastoralists has left thousands dead and many more dis-placed. In central Mali, the escalation of these conflicts culminated in the massacre of 160 members of the Fulani ethno-linguis-tic and traditionally pastoralist group in Ogossagou in March of 2019, as well as ensuing reprisal violence. And, across Sudan, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic (CAR), conflicts relating to livestock migration and cattle theft have played a critical and destabilizing role in internal insurgencies and cross-border conflict. For these reasons and more, conflict dynamics relating to pastoralism and pastoral communities have become a shared policy priority throughout the region.

Over the past two decades, the rangelands of Eastern Africa have experienced sweeping changes associated with
growing human populations, shifting land use, expanding livestock marketing and trade, and greater investment by domestic and global capital. These trends have coincided with several large shocks that were turning points for how rangeland inhabitants make a living. As livelihoods in the region’s rangelands transform in seemingly
paradoxical directions, away from customary pastoralist production systems, greater insight is required of how these transformations might affect poverty and vulnerability. This article reviews the state of what is known regarding directions of livelihood change in the rangelands of Eastern Africa, drawing on case studies of structural change in five settings in the region.
It considers the implications of long-term change, as well as the emergence of very different livelihood mixes in pastoral rangelands, for efforts to reduce poverty and vulnerability in these places.

In South Sudan agro-pastoralism is the main livelihood system in rural areas. Although agro-pastoralism involves both livestock rearing and crop production, a household’s financial capital is held in the form of livestock. Livestock also supply milk and other foods, and are sold to purchase cereals for food and meet other domestic needs. Poorer households aim to build their herds; this is the key and economically logical strategy for building their financial capital. Due to the seasonality of food production, milk is a critical food at specific times of year, when other foods e.g. cereals, are not readily available. Milk is an especially important food for young children, and pregnant and lactating mothers. Livestock is also important in South Sudan’s pastoralist and agrarian areas.
In addition to the role of livestock as financial capital and food, traditional social support systems in South Sudan are based on livestock transactions. In particular, the use of livestock as bridewealth creates social networks, with reciprocal assistance in times of hardship. An individual’s vulnerability depends heavily on their social connectedness, and social connections are created and maintained through livestock exchanges. This critical role of livestock in South Sudan is difficult to quantify, but has huge significance in communities facing crises such as protracted conflict and market failures. Further information on the impact of conflict on livestock is provided in recent the K4D report Livestock and conflict in South Sudan (Idris, 2018).

FAO assesses that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa and 9 in Asia, are in need of external assistance for food. Conflicts and climate-related shocks are critical factors underpinning the high levels of severe food insecurity.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated vulnerabilities and resulted in increased humanitarian needs.

The project examines the changing tastes for food in South Sudan in the context of the country’s economic transition and place in the regional, cross-border economy of grain. In this piece, Luga Aquila explores the history of cassava among the Pojulu in Central Equatoria. He explains how one local cassava variety called yoyoji-yoyoja, which translates as ‘you can now get engaged’, became an important means of bridewealth in the Pojulu community. Later, yoyojiyoyoja lost some of its social value when a new cassava variety called bokolisha was introduced, which has properties that are more suitable for market production.
Luga draws upon his family’s oral history to show how the movement of people and tubers is connected to
changing marriage practices and the organization and redistribution of family wealth.

Fifty years ago, most households in South Sudan produced the grain they ate, organizing agricultural labour and distributing small surpluses mostly through kinship and other social networks. Now, the majority of households buy most of their food. This transition from self-sufficiency to market dependence took place during long wars, which transformed or distorted almost every aspect of everyday life. It is a transition that now seems to be irreversible. This report therefore looks at how South Sudan’s subsistence system, which organized the production and distribution of wealth around kinship and social networks, is being replaced by a market economy, and what the consequences of this are for the country and its people.

In this article the author examines the relevance of infant-industry promotion theory to South Sudan’s economic revitalization efforts. As a newly formed state with jurisdiction over people with varied and often conflicting interests, the South Sudanese government will likely experience difficulty developing institutions and procedures that produce an equitable distribution of economic gains across the South Sudanese population. After a brief introduction, Zambakari discusses the role of the state in economic development dating back to the renaissance. He discusses the state and economic development in South Sudan and argues that recent declines in South Sudan’s performance on key human development indicators heighten the urgency of evaluating different strategic options for rebuilding an economy ravaged by civil war. This process will necessarily require careful consideration of the optimal degree of state involvement in designing and implementing these solutions. Infant-industry promotion is one promising approach to leveling the playing field between developing and developed country economies. Lastly, Zambakari presents the case for infant-industry promotion and call for the government to serve an active role in economic development and promotion, an alternative model for development in South Sudan by applying selective economic policies to industries where productive capacities can be developed.